Analysis: Wanderers bet on Tiago Coimbra's potential given strong underlying numbers
The Halifax Wanderers and striker Tiago Coimbra have agreed to a new contract, keeping the young attacker in Atlantic Canada until potentially 2028.
Looking at the move critically, Coimbra's new deal is a vote of confidence. Although still U-21 eligible in 2025, the Wanderers have secured the Brazilian - Canadian's services well into his 20s, betting on his size, character and profile to develop into a force within the CPL and, importantly, a candidate to be sold upwards.
Coimbra has shown himself well through two CPL campaigns, amassing 41 appearances for the Wanderers through all competitions but has been hampered by injuries. He's improved his production slightly, notching an extra goal in 2024 from his rookie season, and was more involved on both sides of the ball, especially in his ability to win aerial duels defensively.
However, after battling a series of nagging muscle injuries, Coimbra played nearly 200 less minutes last year compared to 2023, registering just shy of 800 minutes through 20 appearances. Given his youth, the Wanderers — who had an incredible amount of injuries this past season — are clearly hoping this is an anomaly.
Delving into the numbers, the Wanderers have made a good bet by investing in Coimbra's future: he profiles, through the data provided by Alex Brazier Rymek of CPL By the Numbers, as a player on the cusp of breaking out. A full explanation of Alex's model is available here.
Coimbra is statistically one of the most effective strikers in the CPL per 90 minutes according to Alex's model, bested only by Cavalry's Tobias Warschewski and Atlético Ottawa’s Sam Salter. It is, however, important to remember that his numbers have come in a smaller sample size but if he were to keep the same rate of goal contributions with a starting role, Coimbra is a player who could considerably increase his production.
Looking at his card, the young striker is finishing plays at a good clip, earning a goal contribution score of 77.5 (anything above 50 is better than average). He's also elite at getting his shots off, meaning — be it positioning himself on the end of a cross or swinging at a loose ball — Coimbra has a knack for connecting. His accuracy, scored at 53.6, could use some work.
As mentioned previously, the eye test showed a young player committed to improving defensively. Coimbra's always been good at pressing the ball but this past season saw a concentrated effort to win battles in his own box, making several crucial clearances in matches by winning aerial duels. Although not elite, his dueling (67.8) and blocks and clearances score (58.9) are better than average and higher than what would necessarily be expected of a striker. Digging into the stats, however, reveals that Coimbra is best in the air.
Coimbra is not very involved in build up play, profiling as a power forward and finisher who converts opportunities instead of creating them. This isn't to take away from his off the ball work, which has improved, but he profiles very differently from someone like Ryan Telfer, who likes to dribble and is more involved in finding his teammates and creating space. But one very telling statistic from the data is that Coimbra was third in the CPL last year in non-penalty goals per 90 minutes. Finding that level of finishing is rare.
Overall, Signing Coimbra to a long-term deal is a good move for the Wanderers as it gives the player much needed stability and the club control of a valuable striker. It remains to be seen if Coimbra will be able to breakout as his numbers suggest but you can be sure the club is going to push to develop him into their starting striker. He'll get the chance to earn that spot in training camp.
The biggest question, of course, is if he can stay healthy and if his efficiency will drop with more minutes. Either way, it's a bet worth making.
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Cover Photo Credit: Trevor MacMillan / Halifax Wanderers FC
