By the Numbers: A look at the profiles of this year's CPL Golden Boot candidates
The Golden Boot race is afoot and, with the CPL regular season winding down, it's anyone's guess as to who will finish as the league's top goal scorer.
Some will surely point to Atlético Ottawa's Rubén del Campo as the favourite given his two goal lead with only four matches to play. Others will make a claim for York United's Brian Wright, who has rebounded for an impressive year after a disappointing 2023 campaign. But when you add in the goal scoring might of penalty wizard Dan Nimick, Tristan Borges and Alejandro Diaz, there really is no sure-fire bet to hoist the trophy. Like the hunt for the last spot in the playoffs, the CPL's Golden Boot race could come down to the last match.
All of the players touched on, be it through penalties, set pieces or open play, know how to put the ball into the back of the net. But what's interesting from this year's crop of players, distinguishing them from year's past, is that this is a group of distinctly different players atop the scoring charts. Del Campo went from scoring zero goals through 2023 to one of the most dangerous strikers in the CPL. Nimick, despite a run of horrible luck punctuated by own goals, is statistically elite across all areas of the pitch. And Borges and Wright are having Player of the Year-calibre seasons, scoring as well as creating for their teammates, while Diaz helped prop up Vancouver FC in the middle of their season. They are all very, very different players.
So, aside from the goals, where do these players rate statistically? Are they merely finishing maestros or do they get involved in build up? Where do they rank league-wide for their impacts on the pitch? We've taken a look, thanks to our friends at CPL By the Numbers, at the data behind these would-be Golden Boot candidates.
A quick introduction to CPL By the Numbers
All of the player cards you’re about to see were created by Alex Brazier Rymek, an Ottawa-based writer who analyzes and rates CPL players through statistics. He’s been running a database recording statistics on every player in the league since 2020 and publishes his findings and comparisons on his Twitter / X account, CPL By the Numbers. He’s also a regular contributor and editor for Capital City Supporters Group.
He’s been able to create a model — sourced from his database — which compares a player’s per 90 minute actions (goal contributions, shooting, passing, etc.) relative to his peers. These categories are expressed as a percentile rank; a 50% ranking means a player is average but a 100% ranking means a player is the best in the league at that given statistic.
Group statistics are visible on the right hand side of the player cards (taken from a total of 18 individual categories) and all of this information is further distilled to produce a player’s Weighted Percentile Average or WPA on the bottom left. A 60 WPA is the typical average for any given season; 65 to 75 is considered good and over 80 is great.
One important thing to note is these rankings use the 2023 dataset as a comparison to arrive at approximate numbers without having the totality of 2024's statistics completed. Once the season is complete, CPL By the Numbers will have a more accurate database to work with to further provide Team Factor and Positional Ranks, both of which require a full dataset.
A more detailed description of how the model works is available here.
Player profiles
He's got the hair, he's got the tattoos, and he's got the swagger of a footballer who knows and enjoys his lot in life: Rubén del Campo scores goals. And this year he's scored a lot of them.
As mentioned previously, del Campo currently leads the Golden Boot race as he's bagged 11 goals to date. It's an impressive haul, especially considering his poor luck last year, a campaign which saw him go goalless through 16 appearances. Del Campo quickly put 2023 behind him, starting the year on a tear and has shown a remarkable efficiency in front of goal.
To make it clear: if del Campo gets an opportunity, he puts it into the net. As highlighted by the above stats, he's elite at putting balls both on (he leads the CPL with 50 shots) and in the net. Be it an off-balance volley after a set piece on Pacific or a rebound against Vancouver, the 24-year old Swiss striker is the player Atlético Ottawa wants taking the shot.
In fact, head coach Carlos Gonzalez's desire to have his strikers playing high and on the counter means that del Campo is mostly isolated from build up play. He ranks amongst the lowest in the league for pass attempts (four per cent) and touches (just over two per cent), distinct stats which highlight how little he has the ball at his feet. But what's impressive is what del Campo is able to do once he's in possession of the ball: he can score, obviously, but rates in the top third of the league for assists (68.5 per cent) and around average for key passes (47.8 per cent) meaning he's also creating for his teammates despite having few opportunities to do so. His position as the tip of the spear means he's largely exempt from the dirty work of defending. It's safe to say del Campo's WPA ranking is impacted by his one-sided nature and doesn't do justice to his offensive impact.
But if del Campo can pot a goal or two down the stretch, he'll likely have a shiny new trophy to put on his shelf to make up for a good, but not great, WPA.
Similar to del Campo, Brian Wright is another No. 9 who seems to have started the 2024 CPL season as a player determined to prove last year was an outlier. Not only has he been a key piece of York United's attack, he's arguably been one of the best all around players in the CPL, slotting in with an impressive 82.7 WPA, making him approximately the seventh best statistical player this season.
Diving into his data, Wright profiles as an attacker who can do a bit of everything with the ball. His goal contributions are elite, buoyed by his nine goals and six assists. But what's really interesting is that the numbers suggest his offensive output isn't a fluke: he's taking a high volume of shots (ranking in the 85th percentile) and making dangerous passes (66 per cent) so his goal contributions shouldn't slow down. Given his strength and size, he's also drawing a lot of fouls and has one of the better differentials (74.4 per cent) in the league.
Again, like del Campo, Wright's position means he's not as involved in the defensive side of the game and isn't really used by head coach Benjamin Mora in York's build up. He's getting a few more touches (3.1 per cent) and passes attempts (6.5 per cent) per match than del Campo, but is doing the bulk of his work in the final third. Wright does, however, rate surprisingly well for blocks.
All in all, this season not only represents a return to form for Wright, who previously had six and seven goal campaigns for Atlético Ottawa in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but a new highwater mark. He's missed a bit of time through injury and has slowed down the last handful of matches but is still very much on the cusp of, with a little luck, hunting down del Campo for the Golden Boot. It'd also be a safe bet that Wright will be in consideration for Player of the Year given his goal contributions and positive play.
To say it's been a year of extremes for Dan Nimick doesn't do it justice. Although the Halifax Wanderers had the worst start in CPL history, the 24-year old Labradorian-born centre-back only seemed to raise his level of play, further cementing himself as a leader on both sides of the ball. But things have not gone well for Nimick over the last 10 or so matches. Be it bad luck, confidence issues or injury, his level of play has sagged and — in what has been a freakish display — he's become a magnet for whacky own goals and red cards.
Despite his recent run of form, the data tells a different story: Nimick's numbers remain elite across the pitch and he's statistically the third best player in the CPL. What's interesting, given this publication profiled Nimick's stellar numbers from 2023, is that the Leeds United-trained defender has actually elevated his level of play from last year, improving his WPA from 81 to 83.5. There's an awful lot of blue smeared across his card to back it up.
The elephant in the room in the Golden Boot race is that all but one of Nimick's goals have been scored from the spot. While that may make it statistically unlikely for him to bag many more goals before the end of the year, the data leaves no doubt that Nimick is a huge part of Halifax's offence. He's factored into nearly 35 per cent of the Wanderer's goals this season thanks to his clockwork-like penalties and playmaking. But he's also relied on heavily in the build up, ranking in the top 90 per cent for pass attempts and in the 84th percentile for touches. He's also elite at duels (94 per cent) and in the air (93.6 per cent). Nimick ranks in the 90th percentile for defending.
The question moving forward is can Nimick get himself back on track? He proved last year and through the beginning of this season that he has the talent and drive to be one of the most influential players in the league. The eye-test over the last few months, however, has shown a frustrated player. It's up to him to turn the narrative of his season into a positive one because, own goals aside, he's a heck of a player.
Death, taxes and Tristan Borges delivering stellar CPL performances; these are things you can bet on. Be it the CONCACAF Champions Cup, the Canadian Championship or league play, the 26-year old Forge midfielder continues to deliver a high quality of play which reflects well upon both himself and the badge on his chest.
Although his actual goal contributions are very similar to Wright's (eight goals, six assists) the manner in which Borges has delivered them couldn't be more different. Playing as an offensive midfielder, Borges relies on his technical skill and football IQ to deliver the ball into dangerous areas. Given his stature, he rates very poorly in the strength category, neither adept at winning duels (33.2 per cent) and one of the worst in the league at aerial battles (3.8 per cent).
However, be it long balls (77.6 per cent) or finding seams with surgeon-like exactness (93.3 per cent on key passes), Borges is excellent at moving the ball into space and dangerous areas. He's also not afraid to pull the trigger himself, putting 39 shots towards goal this season. He is, from a tendency standpoint, a hard read for goalkeepers. Add in a great foul differential (rating in the 82nd percentile) and you've got a smart, versatile midfielder that is contributing to every facet of his team's attack.
Like all the other players aside from Nimick, Borges' position further up the pitch means he's not really tasked with too much defending, nor should he be. And with the matchdays winding down, it'll be exciting to see whether Borges and Forge land themselves the double and if he can add another Golden Boot (or Player of the Year) to his trophy case. The truth is, he's done it all before.
Speaking of a former Golden Boot winner, Alejandro Diaz is once again in the conversation despite Vancouver FC's failing form of late. That hasn't stopped the 28-year old Mexican striker from potting eight goals this season, a substantial improvement from the meagre brace he managed in 2023.
Looking at his numbers, Diaz's profile highlights a player that's dangerous in the final third but not very involved in build up or relied upon to carry the ball given he ranks near the bottom for touches (1.5 per cent) and pass attempts (11.9). He's also not a particularly versatile passer, having completed no crosses (0.0 per cent) and sparingly few accurate long balls (17.1 per cent). Surprisingly, Diaz has decent defending statistics, clocking in right in the middle of the pack at 50.6 per cent, meaning he's tasked with dropping back to help protect his own final third.
But like any good striker, it's Diaz's ability to finish that distinguishes him. His goal contributions are elite at 89.9 per cent. Interestingly, compared to del Campo and Borges, Diaz picks his spots a bit more, relying on accuracy over volume when it comes to converting his chances. In fact, he's managed only 28 shots, which is nearly half the amount del Campo fired towards goal and speaks to Diaz ability to finish on the chances he does get. Aside from Nimick, who has the benefit of being Halifax's penalty taker, Diaz is the best of the bunch at putting the ball on net accurately (79.5 per cent).
Although not profiled for this piece as he was below the goal threshold at the time, it'd be fascinating to compare the profiles of Diaz and Moses Dyer given Vancouver opted to ship the New Zealander to Vancouver Island. Diaz is, in the CPL, a player with pedigree given he's won the Golden Boot before and earned a tidy transfer out of the league. But you'd be forgiven for wondering whether they made the right call given Diaz is good at finishing but isn't all that great at creating (ranking 61.8 per cent in chance creation) for his teammates.
Cover Photo Credit: Canadian Premier League
