By the Numbers: a statistical examination of HFX Wanderers heading into 2024
Editor's Note: This is part one of a five-part series delving into the statistical profiles of confirmed Wanderers players.
The 2024 CPL season is just around the corner.
With the first of several Wanderers Wednesdays complete, it's inevitable that fans (and your friendly neighbourhood reporters) are already excitedly penciling in a potential starting XI for the club's first match against Pacific FC. The Wanderers still have several signings to announce between now and kick-off at Starlight Stadium on April 13 but the heart of last season's squad is back.
In many ways, the Wanderers faithful are going into the 2024 season very familiar with the profiles of players like Daniel Nimick, Aidan Daniels and Massimo Ferrin. You've seen what they can do on the pitch with your own eyes.
But how good is the returning core according to the numbers? And where do they rate compared to their peers across the league?
An introduction to CPL By the Numbers
Sports analysis is best derived from a mixture of observation and data. Through the Wanderers Notebook, I've worked hard to provide reporting on what I'm seeing and hearing around the club — be it at training, on match days or through conversations — on a weekly basis. One element I've always wanted to add to my work is data.
To bridge this gap, I recently got in contact with Alex Brazier Rymek, an Ottawa-based writer who analyzes and rates CPL players through statistics. He's been running a database recording statistics on every player in the league since 2020 and publishes his findings and comparisons on his Twitter / X account, CPL By the Numbers. He's also a regular contributor and editor for Capital City Supporters Group.
Thanks to Alex and his model, I'll be delving into the statistical strengths and weaknesses of the confirmed Wanderers players over the next few weeks. Specifically, I'm aiming to evaluate the strength of head coach Patrice Gheisar's returning players (and those who recently played in the CPL) in anticipation of their first match.
About the model
All player statistics in Alex's model are taken from StatsPerform and SofaScore and transcribed into his database.
In an effort to measure a player's efficiency, the numbers are normalized into per 90 statistics, meaning the amount of any given action a player would complete over a full 90 minutes. These statistics are calculated by taking your metric (goals, assists, tackle success, etc.), dividing it by the amount of minutes a player recorded and multiplying it by 90 minutes.
For example, Tiago Coimbra registered three goals over 917 minutes last season. His goals per 90 statistic (3 / 917 x 90) would be 0.29.
The next step is translating each player's per 90 statistics into percentile rankings. This helps evaluate a player's performance against his peers through direct comparison. Earning a 100% score means a player is the best in the league at a given stat; a 50% means that player is exactly average.
Again turning to Coimbra, he was ranked at 81.3% for his goal contributions per 90 minutes, meaning he was far above average at helping the ball get into the back of the net.
Alex's model tracks a total of 18 individual statistics to paint a full picture of a player's efficiency on the pitch ranging from goal scoring to attempted passes to dribbling. These 18 statistics are then simplified to the 10 boxes seen on the right side of the player cards. Players' categories are weighted based on their position; a striker's goals and assists percentile rankings, for example, matter more than their defensive contributions. All of this information is distilled to produce a player's Weighted Percentile Average or WPA.
A 60 WPA is the typical average for any given season; 65 to 75 is considered good and over 80 is great. Coimbra's WPA came in at 62.9 according to the model.
Using the model to gauge the Wanderers
Through his meticulous work, Alex's model boils down a lot of information into bite-sized pieces to compare players. It's an insightful tool to better understand individual players and assess their strengths and weaknesses.
But data is only one tool in a pundits arsenal and it's best used in conjunction with what you can see on the pitch. Over the course of this series, I'll be referencing the model but adding what I observed over the course of my first season covering the club.
To note, I'll be breaking down all 12 of the Wanderers outfield players currently under contract; my apologies to Yann Fillion and his keeping abilities. The limited small size and extreme nature of keeper statistics means they don't translate well. My only hope is Fillion can forgive me.
More information on Alex's model is available here.
Cover Photo Credit: CPL By the Numbers
