By the Numbers: Daniels, Ferrin and Coimbra key to unlocking HFX Wanderers' attack
Editor's Note: This is part three of a five-part series delving into the statistical profiles of confirmed Wanderers players. Part one is available here. Part two is available here.
Goals win matches and it's no coincidence that the Halifax Wanderers set a club record for wins the same year they potted 39 markers. The proof, it seems, is in a goal-laden pudding.
Food expressions aside, 2023 was a banner year for the Wanderers whatever way you slice it (okay, I guess I wasn't done). They tied for second in the league on points (42), hosted their inaugural playoff match, and boasted a vastly improved goal differential to make their fans once again believe in the boys in blue.
The renaissance of Aidan Daniels was key to Halifax's offensive success last year; no other player better mirrors the reversal of fortunes for the CPL's East Coast club. But he wasn't alone.
Aided by the consistency of first-year pro Massimo Ferrin, the return of João Morelli, and a trio of strikers (Tiago Coimbra, Théo Collomb and Jordan Perruzza), the Wanderers attackers were a source of steady offence throughout last season, although head coach Patrice Gheisar is on record saying he'd like more from his centre-forwards in 2024.
Now, on the eve of another campaign, only Daniels, Ferrin and Coimbra remain from last year's forward group. Looking at their statistics, the numbers reinforce the club's decision to keep Daniels and Ferrin — both rated as top 10 players in the league — and bet on the potential of young Coimbra.
A quick introduction to CPL By the Numbers
All of the player cards you’re about to see were created by Alex Brazier Rymek, an Ottawa-based writer who analyzes and rates CPL players through statistics. He’s been running a database recording statistics on every player in the league since 2020 and publishes his findings and comparisons on his Twitter / X account, CPL By the Numbers. He’s also a regular contributor and editor for Capital City Supporters Group.
He’s been able to create a model — sourced from his database — which compares a player’s per 90 minute actions (goal contributions, shooting, passing, etc.) relative to his peers. These categories are expressed as a percentile rank; a 50% ranking means a player is average but a 100% ranking means a player is the best in the league at that given statistic.
Group statistics are visible on the right hand side of the player cards (taken from a total of 18 individual categories) and all of this information is further distilled to produce a player’s Weighted Percentile Average or WPA on the bottom left. A 60 WPA is the typical average for any given season; 65 to 75 is considered good and over 80 is great.
A more detailed description of how the model works is available here.
Player profiles
I've written a lot this past year about the renaissance of Daniels and for good reason.
Although the Wanderers as an organization struggled in 2022, I think it's safe to say no player had disappointed more than Daniels given his pedigree and experience in Toronto FC's system and 130 matches in USL. It's not surprising sporting director Matt Fegan brought up how to help Daniels as a key question in all of his coaching interviews.
Looking back at 2023, the eye-test alone showed a more confident player; Daniels' body language was positive, he was more engaged and he spoke openly about being a leader. In part, Daniels credits Gheisar and his staff for helping him to change how he sees the game: "Pat’s opened my eyes to if you just run 10 yards, you won’t have to run 60. It’s that immediate work rate when you lose the ball and showing good body language. As you said, I am a bit of an experienced player so if the younger guys see me with good body language and I’m working hard and running back, then everyone else will."
Alex's model confirms the eye-test: Daniels was a top player last year, his WPA ranking him as the fifth best player in the league. According to the model, Daniels was elite at creating chances for his teammates, ranking in the 88th percentile for both key passes and accurate long-balls. His crossing (89.9%) and assists (90.4%) were also elite. Last year saw Daniels highlight his goal scoring touch, improving on the lone marker he recorded in 2022. Overall, Alex's model shows a player who excels with the ball at his feet.
Like some of the other Wanderers profiled, Daniels is not the biggest guy on the pitch and it showed in his inability to win duels and headers. Given his technical ability, I was surprised his dribbling was only 57.7%, meaning he mostly beat his man but somehow I expected him to be far and away one of the best. Having said that, there weren't many other holes in his game when you consider Daniels was almost exclusively used as an attacking midfielder.
Both Alex's model and the eye-test point to a confident, dangerous player. Wanderers fans will be hoping for Daniels' continued success as they look to replicate last season; at 25-years old, Daniels ranks amongst the veteran core of Gheisar's squad. We saw him step into the spotlight a little bit in 2023 but look for him to be leaned on more heavily this year as he is a core piece and one of the longest tenured players. Time will tell if he and the Wanderers can replicate their success a second time.
Ferrin was a revelation for the Wanderers last year.
Much was made of the club's League1 Ontario and Vaughan Azzurri connections but Ferrin proved he belonged in the CPL through his hard work and consistent play. Throughout the season, Gheisar opted to lean on his long-time attacker to spur offence in dry spells, shifting Ferrin from left wing to centre forward depending on the circumstances. In fact, when Coimbra went down with injury, the coaching staff often chose to shift Ferrin over instead of giving Collomb the start. Ferrin is in the conversation — along with Dan Nimick and Yann Fillion — as the coaching staff's most trusted player.
The results speak for themselves: Ferrin proved to be Halifax's deadliest shooter, registering elite goal contributions and shooting numbers. Similar to Daniels, he also ranked highly for chance creation, ending up in the 82nd percentile. Digging a little deeper into his offensive numbers, Ferrin faired well in shot accuracy (76.4%), shot attempts (88.6%) and goals (89.2%). His ability to finish plays was elite.
Ferrin's year was impressive for a number of reasons — and not just for all of the blue highlighting his offensive numbers. He proved to be one of the league's top goal scorers despite suffering a number of injuries. In fact, heading into the off-season, he revealed he had hurt his ankle at the beginning of training camp and never really felt right. He also hurt his ribs and shoulder in separate instances. Sitting in the press box, you couldn't tell he was hurt by the way he competed for the ball; he gutted it out.
Although there were some dry spells in the middle of the season, Ferrin certainly found his goal scoring touch when it mattered most, scoring four goals in the final four matches of the regular season.
There are still areas for the 25-year old to improve on. By virtue of being on the wing, his low number of touches are expected but his 63% pass completion rate could use some work (although it's worth noting that he still ranks highly for an attacking player). He's a winger who works hard but does little statistically on the defensive side to impede opposing clubs. With another professional campaign under his belt — yes, I have to remind myself of that he only recently turned pro — I think Ferrin is a prime candidate for growth next season if he stays healthy. That's an impressive takeaway for the sixth best ranked player in Alex's model as per his WPA.
Given Ferrin's demeanour, I expect him to come back hungrier than ever.
Which brings us to Coimbra, a bull in footballer's boots.
The young Brazilian-Canadian strikes a very different profile from Daniels and Ferrin or really anyone else on the Wanderers squad. For starter's, he's as broad as a barn and brings some desperately needed height (6'2) to a diminutive group. He also brings an element of chaos in his stampeding runs, pressing hard and teetering on the edge in his challenges. In short, he boasts a level of physicality that's hard not to admire.
But he's also incredibly raw. He made great strides last year — and would have picked up a few more goals if not for a nagging thigh injury — and continues to sharpen his game. He featured in 20 matches but only registered 917 minutes, giving Alex's model enough of a sample size to decipher some trends in his numbers. He turned 20 in January.
There's a lot to like statistically for a young player. The promise on the pitch is reflected in the numbers when it comes to goals (86.2%), shot attempts (70.1%) and assists (66.5%). Although he ranks further down in traditional counting stats, when brought into per 90 contributions, Coimbra presents as an offensive player who did very well given his opportunities. It's also reasonable to expect, according to the model, that he'd deliver offensively if given more minutes. Again, this is a smaller sample size but an 81.3% for goal contributions ranks amongst the best in the league and bodes well for a developing player; there could be another level here.
One important thing to note is that Coimbra is still U-21 eligible this year so it's reasonable to expect he'll get more playing time. However, as with all young players, it'll be a juggling act to ensure he gets opportunities while balancing the needs of the club. For example, Coimbra still needs to work on his technical skills, embodied in his low passing and duel numbers. He also needs to be careful as his foul differential (3.6%) means he's almost always on the wrong side of the referees but that's to be taken with a grain a salt given the smaller sample size.
With several Wanderers signings yet to be announced, it'll be interesting to see who they bring in to support Coimbra as a veteran striker and another rotation option. However, there's certainly a case to be made about giving Coimbra more minutes to prove his mettle for his second professional campaign.
Cover Photo Credit: Trevor MacMillan / Halifax Wanderers FC
