By the Numbers: Nimick, Loughrey are a known quantity to HFX Wanderers — but how much will they experiment with their centre-back pairings?
Editor's Note: This is part four of a five-part series delving into the statistical profiles of confirmed Wanderers players. Part one is available here; part two is available here; part three is available here and part four is available here.
It's official: the Halifax Wanderers training camp is underway.
Players reported on Wednesday for medicals and the squad is expected to undergo physical training and drills in Halifax over the next three weeks. The club then plans on flying to Ontario, Washington and British Columbia in anticipation of pre-season friendlies before their CPL campaign begins on April 13 against Pacific.
There are a number of new faces at camp this year, especially on the backline. Centre-back Kareem Sow — who is a previous U Sports draft pick — is back in Nova Scotia after signing his first professional contract. And the club made a splash on Wednesday by announcing their signing of Julian Dunn, who last impressed in the CPL with Valour but recently featured in Norway's top division with Hamarkameratene.
Both Dunn and Sow offer interesting profiles to a backline that already boasts Daniel Nimick, who turned heads last year in his first campaign with the Wanderers, and Cale Loughrey. Together, Nimick and Loughrey formed one of the most impressive partnerships in the CPL in 2023 and became routine in head coach Patrice Gheisar's starting XI. They were a known entity on the pitch and complemented each other stylistically.
So how did they do from a data perspective? The answer, as you might expect, is nuanced but suggests their is room for the duo to improve heading into 2024.
The question is, then, should Gheisar and his coaching staff return to the players who helped the club achieve records in goals, points and wins or opt to experiment with Sow and Dunn?
A quick introduction to CPL By the Numbers
All of the player cards you’re about to see were created by Alex Brazier Rymek, an Ottawa-based writer who analyzes and rates CPL players through statistics. He’s been running a database recording statistics on every player in the league since 2020 and publishes his findings and comparisons on his Twitter / X account, CPL By the Numbers. He’s also a regular contributor and editor for Capital City Supporters Group.
He’s been able to create a model — sourced from his database — which compares a player’s per 90 minute actions (goal contributions, shooting, passing, etc.) relative to his peers. These categories are expressed as a percentile rank; a 50% ranking means a player is average but a 100% ranking means a player is the best in the league at that given statistic.
Group statistics are visible on the right hand side of the player cards (taken from a total of 18 individual categories) and all of this information is further distilled to produce a player’s Weighted Percentile Average or WPA on the bottom left. A 60 WPA is the typical average for any given season; 65 to 75 is considered good and over 80 is great.
A more detailed description of how the model works is available here.
Player profiles
Dribbling. Passing. Defending. Nimick can do it all.
It's a bit funny to be singing Nimick's praises at the beginning of training camp given he practically walked in this time last year as an unknown. However, it didn't take long for Wanderers fans to become acquainted with the legally-Labradorian but U.K. raised centre-back as he quickly solidified his place as an integral part of Gheisar's system. Despite being only 22-years old at the beginning of last season, Nimick showcased nerves of steel (remember that Forge penalty winner?) and the knack for always being in the right place at the right time. He ended last season with the most minutes played of any Wanderer, featuring in every match except one, and earned nominations for CPL Defender of the Year and Player's Player of the Year.
Alex's model corroborates that Nimick was indeed one of the best players in the league, his 81.0 WPA landing him as the seventh best player last season. The amount of blue smeared across his player card shows a player adept at both attacking and defending, which pretty much confirms what fans at the Wanderers Grounds observed in 2023.
From an offensive perspective, Nimick rated well for goal contributions (75.3%) and shooting (74.1%) but ranked as an elite dribbler (89.7%). In fact, I think if you would have asked me before seeing the numbers, I would have rated Nimick as one of the squad's better dribblers because although I don't think he's the most technical, I find he has a knack for reading opposing players and making them look silly with a feint or ball roll. I also think this savviness is one of the reasons he's such an excellent penalty taker. But Nimick's best characteristic statistically is his passing. He ranks as a top passer in the league at 94%, delivering long balls across the pitch at will. He also ranks in the top percentage (85.5%) for passing accuracy which is impressive given how many minutes he logged last season.
Nimick is also defensively excellent. He mostly wins his duels (84.4%) and is above average in the air (74.8%). Sifting through his sub-categories, he's elite at clearances (93.4%) and great at blocking shots in a pinch (80.2%). There is nothing he's particularly poor at as a centre-back.
All in all, Alex's model shows one of the best players in the CPL and that shouldn't surprise anyone who watched Nimick last year. I think it's a safe bet he'll be Gheisar's first choice for centre-back this year while he's in Halifax. The only worry, I think, is that he might be sold halfway through the season if he continues to excel.
As mentioned previously, Loughrey was an important part of Halifax's backline last year but his statistical profile pales compared to Nimick. Some of that is due to polish and some of that is due to the role he was asked to play. However, there's no arguing that together they form a strong and dependable partnership the rest of the squad can be built on.
Overall, I'd describe Loughrey as a tall, strong, old-school defender but raw in some aspects of his game. Alex's model shows a player who is good defensively but who is one-dimensional. I'd argue his 55.9 WPA is low given his effectiveness as Nimick's partner but don't contest he can improve in several categories. Similar to the conundrum in getting data for full-backs, I believe it's harder to quantify a player like Loughrey's importance given his role. Often, he stays back as a safety when Nimick steps up; he is the player tasked to track back should a set piece go awry; he covers so the rest of the squad can play free. There's no number that can be attributed to credit Loughrey's ability to read the game and what that allows his teammates the liberty to do on the pitch.
According to Alex's model, Loughrey isn't bringing much offensively. I know last year the coaching staff challenged him and Nimick to step up on corners and he had some looks but for whatever reason, couldn't get the ball across the line (I expect they'll continue to try and tease that aspect out of him). His passing rates much better, logging in at a solid 69.3%. Looking a little deeper, he actually scores at 77.2% for passing attempts and 75% for pass completion but is brought down by the fact he isn't delivering the ball into dangerous areas (16.2% key passes). He's effective at moving the ball around safely but isn't able to break open the match.
His defensive numbers are his strongest attribute, registering at 78.3%. He's great at blocking shots and clearing the ball, tidying up his own 18-yard box nicely. He's also above average in the air (remember how I mentioned the coaching staff wanted him to get involved on set pieces?). However, his foul differential is quite low and is indicative of having to take fouls to stop opponents versus beating them cleanly.
Loughrey is only 22-years old and, should he continue to develop, offers a profile that clubs — be they in Europe or the MLS — covet. Both myself and Martin Bauman of The Coast have previously reported interest in Loughrey from overseas. One of the questions I'm most looking forward to seeing answered this season is if Loughrey can continue to progress as a player and hit the potential everyone sees.
And if he doesn't, can he hold onto his spot in Gheisar's starting XI with the arrival of Dunn and Sow? He did last year against Doneil Henry but the competition at training camp is stiffer than ever before.
Cover Photo Credit: Trevor MacMillan / Halifax Wanderers FC
