'That’s a dangerous combination': Insiders make their CPL regular season predictions
Although rosters won't be officially locked in until April 1, most CPL clubs have a good idea what their squads will look like to start the 2024 season.
Sure, the league's biggest free agents have yet to sign on the dotted line but for the most part, clubs are testing their mettle and figuring out their best starting XI ahead of kickoff on April 13. It's safe to expect a few additional signings from each club — especially with the league's expanded developmental squad — but the tables have mostly been set for the most exciting CPL season to date.
In other words, it's the perfect time for an early predictions piece answering all the questions rattling around in your head after a chaotic off-season: have Valour done enough to finally make the playoffs? Is this the year Forge falls from grace? And are Atlético Ottawa contenders or pretenders following their star-studded recruitment?
To answer these questions, The Wanderers Notebook canvassed eight people who work in or with the league, be they journalists, agents or executives. We have granted anonymity to their rankings so as to garner their true feelings without fear of repercussions. We asked each person to rank the clubs one through eight and to provide reasons for their choices; each club's collective rankings will be displayed, including selected comments or summaries of opinions.
One interesting note to come out through this process is that most people clearly think there are two tiers to the league; those who have established a culture and identity and those struggling to find their footing following expansion, player losses or off-pitch issues.
So, without further ado, welcome to a list of early CPL predictions from inside the league.
Halifax Wanderers FC
Rankings: 1, 3, 6, 1, 2, 4, 1, 1
Half of those canvassed predicted the Wanderers to claim the Canadian Premier League Shield, which would be the first piece of silverware in the club's trophy cabinet. The Wanderers received the most first place votes of any club.
All except one expected them to at least make the playoffs, suggesting a small but present element of doubt.
When explaining their rankings, most pointed to head coach Patrice Gheisar and his coaching staff as having laid a winning foundation last year and predicted the real possibility of the club exceeding levels previously established by Cavalry and Forge.
"Patrice is a great coach," said one source.
Most thought the Wanderers had a quiet but shrewd recruitment, adding the likes of Julian Dunn, Vitor Dias, Giorgio Probo, Ryan Telfer and Christian Volesky to a solid squad which tied for second in the league last year. Retaining key players like Daniel Nimick, Lorenzo Callegari and Massimo Ferrin was also considered a feat unto itself; one person thought many of the returning players have another level to them, especially considering most played their first pro matches last year.
"That's a dangerous combination," noted a source discussing Nimick and Ferrin's progression.
But it remains to be seen if the Wanderers can reach their potential. Almost everyone canvassed liked what Halifax built over the last year and thought they'd take a crucial next step. Their depth was also cited as an asset. However, there's a reason the matches are played on the pitch: a lot can go wrong between now and the end of the season.
Atlético Ottawa
Rankings: 3, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3
Everyone canvassed predicted Atlético Ottawa to finish in one of the top three spots; two thought they had it in them to win the regular season trophy.
Obviously, the club has had a stellar recruitment, with the likes of Matteo de Brienne, Ballou Tabla, Rayane Yesli, Kris Twardek and others being lured to the nation's capital. If they manage to ink both Amer Didic and Manny Aparicio, Atlético Ottawa CEO Fernando Lopez will have had the best transfer window in CPL history. ATO supporters are calling it the Winter of Fernando.
Questions, however, remain given the Avengers-level of talent collection.
"Will some guys become toxic in the locker room if their role doesn't amount to what was promised?" quipped one source. "They're an all-star team on paper."
Some noted that the club was better than what they showed down the stretch in 2023 and commended them for adding some bite to their sound defensive DNA. Winger Kévin Dos Santos, they said, could also be a sneaky good pickup.
Overall, some had reservations about head coach Carlos Gonzalez's ability to shift from a defensive-oriented system to something more possession based given the talent at his disposal. It'll be interesting to see if Atlético Ottawa lives up to the hype or crumbles under the pressure of their all-star roster's expectations.
Cavalry FC
Rankings: 4, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 2
Similar to the Wanderers, many felt like Cavalry was able to retain the players which helped them set a 13-point gap last year while adding the likes of Tobias Warschewski and Diego Gutiérrez. The result is that everyone canvassed expected them to make it into the playoffs, including two first place votes; half predicted a third place finish.
Overall, some feel Cavalry didn't necessarily keep pace with their recruitment compared to clubs like Atlético Ottawa and Halifax but remain a solid threat. With a bit of luck, it's hard not to envision head coach Tommy Wheeldon Jr. and his squad perhaps outperforming expectations as they were runners up for the North Star Cup last year and made their inaugural CONCACAF Champions Cup debut in recent months.
"Despite their painful Champions Cup exit, this is still a very dangerous Cavalry team," warned one source.
There's no doubt Cavalry will be coming into 2024 with lofty goals and most expected Wheeldon Jr.'s solid coaching, a sturdy defence led by Defender of the Year Daan Klomp and renewed attack to give other clubs fits. Warschewski could be their lucky charm.
"Warschewski is a sneaky good signing — he was one of the league's more efficient scorers during his time at FC Edmonton, and it always surprised me that he went without a team in 2023," said one source. Still, it'll be up to the players on the pitch to show why others may be underestimating them.
Forge FC
Rankings: 2, 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5
Anyway you slice it, Forge are the CPL's first dynasty. They've won four championship's in five years, have several international outings to their credit and somehow seem to retain their core players year after year.
This summer is perhaps the first time we've seen a gap in their armour. The absence of star keeper Triston Henry and departures of MLS-bound Woobens Pacius, Manjrekar James and Rezart Rama mean some big names (and talent) are out the door. Although certainly not counted out, no one canvassed predicted a first place finish for Bobby Smyrniotis and his orange-clad squad. Most predicted third or lower.
But this isn't to say Forge's time is over but we may be entering the twilight of their reign and people have noticed.
"They're not the dominant force they once were, though — and there's a real possibility of getting overtaken by a team like York or Vancouver," said one source.
Still, there's respect for what they have accomplished and many confirmed their beliefs that Forge could make them eat their words. The strength of Smyrniotis' tactics and their ability to integrate young players seamlessly into his system could stave off any downfall. One or two signings, some said, could push them back into contention. The core of captain Kyle Bekker, David Chonière, Tristan Borges and Alexander Achinioti-Jönsson also cannot be underrated.
"As long as Bobby and Bekker are in Hamilton, it feels like a playoff berth is inevitable," said one source.
York United FC
Rankings: 7, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 5, 6
There's freedom in knowing where you stand and, if our contributors are to be believed, York United are comfortably predicted to make the playoffs. On the other end of the spectrum, no one thought Game Plan Sports' newest acquisition would place higher than fifth on the table.
The lowest anyone thought the club would fall was seventh.
But make no mistake: people understand this is a year of transition for York as the Pasquel brothers work to overhaul the club on and off the pitch. Given much of their budget was already committed, the club made some signings, including bringing in a number of Mexican players but lost the likes of Paris Gee, Tass Mourdoukoutas, Niko Giantsopoulos, Jérémy Gagnon-Laparé and Kévin dos Santos. Will the additions of players like Frank Sturing and former Club América defender Oswaldo León be enough to off-set the changes?
Overall, most described York's recruitment as "interesting" but said Martin Nash's squad has the pedigree to return to the playoffs. Austin Ricci, a number of sources noted, will continue to be a key piece as they look to build a culture under the Pasquel brothers.
Given where things were at the beginning of last season — and the uncertainty that surrounded the league buying the club from the Baldassarra family — most felt York was on the upswing.
"The new ownership is the best thing that could've happened to the club. There's a lot of new faces in the dressing room, which makes for an adjustment period, but the calibre is there," said one source in summary of the situation.
Pacific FC
Rankings: 5, 7, 4, 7, 6, 6, 6, 7
Similar to York, most have pegged Pacific to finish sixth on the table and that's far from where James Merriman and his merry men pictured themselves last year. Now, only two people thought Pacific had a shot at making it into the playoffs; three predicted a seventh place finish.
The issue most discussed was the loss of quality: both Didic and Aparicio were elite for Pacific last year and their losses hurt. However, they retained most of their young pieces at full-back and in midfield, giving them a good foundation. Homegrown midfielder Sean Young, Kunle Dada-Luke, Ayman Sellouf and Thomas Meilleur-Giguere are all considered good pieces to build around.
The question is can they incorporate their new players like Andrei Tircoveanu or Reon Moore quick enough to avoid finishing outside the top five? People were divided.
"I think there's a lot of pressure on Merriman here but they should just get over the playoff line still," said one.
"There are too many unanswered questions now compared to the rest of the league," wrote another.
The consensus was that Merriman will have his hands full, and have some good results, but his side is most primed to fall down the table. Losing Didic and Aparicio within the league may be too much to overcome.
Vancouver FC
Rankings: 8, 6, 7, 8, 8, 7, 7, 4
Vancouver was divisive in so much as most liked their signings, specifically in the midfield but listed questions in the coaching staff's ability as a concern.
Afshin Ghotbi and his staff didn't have the easiest time adjusting to the CPL last year (they weren't helped by the early loss of Kadin Chung, either) but managed to find their rhythm by season's end. Some took this late-season run as a sign of things to come but others were concerned the squad was only able to perform when the pressure was off. Now, it's up to Ghotbi to prove it wasn't a fluke.
Some predicted a Wooden Spoon in Vancouver's future while one person thought a playoff berth possible. The comments provided some much needed insight.
"I think they'll have some really exciting players going forward. I just question how stable their backline will be. I can see them being involved in matches where they score one or two but concede four," said one source who placed them in eighth.
Those more of the glass half full variety praised their recruitment, including the additions of David Norman Jr., Paris Gee and Kembo Kibato. Having a full season of a settled Alejandro Díaz could also pay divideneds.
"No reason why this team can’t push up the table," said one source.
It's safe to say Vancouver have to prove that they're more than the sum of their parts; executing a disciplined, team-oriented strategy would go a long way in turning skeptics into believers.
Valour FC
Rankings: 6, 8, 8, 5, 7, 8, 8, 8
Valour supporters will be hoping to prove the experts wrong as five out of a possible eight marked them for a second year with the Wooden Spoon. The results weren't without nuance as one source predicted a playoff run given their plethora of new additions and Phil Dos Santos' coaching while a few others thought they could at least make a push.
Still, most said the holes left from last year — Matteo de Brienne and Diego Gutiérrez — have yet to be filled.
"(They) lost their best players to league rivals and have a lot of new players who will need to adjust," summarized one source.
Most felt Valour had improved from last season overall with good depth signings; players like Themi Antonoglou, Roberto Alarcón and Mourdoukoutas all are talented pickups. However, the fear is that the Winnipeg side failed to add any game breakers aside from veteran striker Shaan Hundal. Although there's some quality, people feared Valour would have too many points of failure should one of Hundal or Kian Williams go down with injury.
Some praised Dos Santos as a tactical and organized coach, suited to a defensive minded game, but feared there might not be enough on the pitch to sustain a playoff push, potentially marking the club's sixth straight miss.
Valour will start the season on the road as IG Field undergoes renovations. If the club can survive in the standings until they play their first home match on June 2, they'll have a good shot at finally ending their playoff drought. It remains to be seen if they'll make it to June or go belly up before their fans have a chance to catch the club in person.
Cover Photo Credit: Halifax Wanderers FC
